Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 01 Feb 2025

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1325 UTC 01/02/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 119.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (243 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 105 nm (195 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/1800: 13.9S 118.8E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  996
+12:  02/0000: 13.9S 118.2E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  994
+18:  02/0600: 14.0S 117.5E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  992
+24:  02/1200: 14.2S 116.8E:     065 (120):  045  (085):  989
+36:  03/0000: 14.3S 115.2E:     085 (155):  060  (110):  979
+48:  03/1200: 14.5S 113.6E:     105 (195):  080  (150):  962
+60:  04/0000: 14.6S 111.8E:     125 (230):  090  (165):  953
+72:  04/1200: 14.9S 110.1E:     140 (255):  095  (175):  948
+96:  05/1200: 15.2S 106.5E:     165 (310):  105  (195):  938
+120: 06/1200: 16.2S 102.3E:     210 (395):  095  (175):  948

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 14U was located with IR and microwave satellite imagery with moderate confidence. Recent movement has been slow moving, with it possibly drifting slightly east over the past 6 hours. Dvorak analysis yields a cloud based DT of 2.5 and a MET/PAT of 2.0 based on a developing 24 hour trend. FT and CI are 2.0, either limited to 0.5 change over 6 hours or matching MET/PAT. Objective aids are not yet available. Intensity set to 30 knots. The system is steered to the west southwest by a strong ridge to the south. There is strong consensus in the guidance of this movement continuing for at least the next 5 days, with less across track spread than along track spread. CIMMS shear indicates a strong shear just north of the low level centre, and low just south. This is not apparent in satellite imagery. Upper divergence was good near the centre, but appears to have decreased for 1200 UTC. Forecast shear is forecast remain low over the next few days. Good outflow channels are expected to the west and northwest of the system too. SST are 30 degrees, gradually decreasing to 28 degrees west of 105E. The system is forecast to strengthen, with a period of rapid intensification likely, and reach Category 4 by Tuesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1930 UTC.