Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Wed 27 Nov 2024

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0737 UTC 27/11/2024
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 92.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (210 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  27/1200: 13.0S 91.8E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  994
+12:  27/1800: 13.7S 91.6E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  994
+18:  28/0000: 14.5S 91.7E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  992
+24:  28/0600: 15.2S 92.0E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  992
+36:  28/1800: 16.2S 92.7E:     095 (170):  040  (075):  991
+48:  29/0600: 16.6S 92.9E:     105 (195):  035  (065):  992
+60:  29/1800: 16.6S 92.7E:     125 (235):  035  (065):  993
+72:  30/0600: 16.7S 91.8E:     140 (265):  030  (055):  998
+96:  01/0600: 16.4S 88.6E:     180 (330):  025  (045):  1002
+120: 02/0600: None None:     None (None):  None  (None):  None

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 01U has continued to develop slowly with marginal gales evident southwest of the centre. Analysis based on animated visible imagery, and HY-2B scatterometer at 0230UTC and partial ASCAT-B at 0308UTC. Intensity 35kn influenced by scatterometry with model guidance supporting marginal gales to south supported by the synoptic SE flow and higher than Dvorak estimates. Dvorak FT/CI=2.0 based on shear pattern, but higher than MET would suggest - only designated T1.0 18h previously. Development is occurring in a marginally favourable environment: strong southeasterly flow to south and SST are 27-27.5C but with a shallow thermocline, against marginal moist inflow in low to mid-levels and ongoing moderate to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Gales are forecast south of the centre in the next 60h through to early Friday. Dry air extending around the west and north of the circulation will likely curtail the extent of deep convection north and east of the circulation. However shear is reducing and there is the window of opportunity for the core to experience a pouch of deep moisture for a brief period during Thursday and early Friday. An upper level trough will increase northwest wind shear and the likelihood of dry air ingestion from later Friday. Motion is along a general southerly track influenced by a mid-level ridge to the east. The upper trough may move it more to the southeast from later Thursday. The weakening more shallow circulation is then forecast to turn abruptly to the west on the weekend and move out of the Australian region (90E).

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1330 UTC.