Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 08 Feb 2025

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0642 UTC 08/02/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 95.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (278 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm (650 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/1200: 15.9S 94.9E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  992
+12:  08/1800: 15.9S 94.2E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  992
+18:  09/0000: 15.8S 93.6E:     060 (110):  050  (095):  989
+24:  09/0600: 15.6S 93.2E:     065 (120):  055  (100):  985
+36:  09/1800: 15.2S 92.8E:     080 (145):  065  (120):  977
+48:  10/0600: 14.8S 92.5E:     085 (160):  070  (130):  972
+60:  10/1800: 14.8S 92.2E:     100 (180):  070  (130):  972
+72:  11/0600: 15.3S 91.6E:     115 (215):  075  (140):  969
+96:  12/0600: 17.5S 89.1E:     175 (325):  070  (130):  975
+120: 13/0600: 20.9S 85.9E:     230 (425):  060  (110):  979

REMARKS:
Taliah was located using animated VIS satellite imagery and persistence. Intensity: 45kn based on Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=3.0/3.0 based upon MET = 3.0 with centre position located underneath dense overcast region. Objective intensity aids ADT 57kn, AiDT 44kn, D-PRINT 41kn, SATCON 47kn (all 1 min). CIMSS wind shear analysis indicates moderate (15kn) easterly shear, expected to drop in the next 24 hours as the ridge weakens. The system is supported by deep low to mid-level moisture with warm SSTs (28C). The passage of the upper trough in the 24 hours may also provide increased upper level divergence. The factors will favour Taliah to increase in intensity during the forecast period. Taliah is expected to intensify to a category 2 cyclone on Sunday and then to a category 3 on Monday. Taliah is being steered to the west by a strong middle level ridge located to its southeast. The ridge weakens in the next 24 hours with the passage of a shortwave upper trough passing to the south. As a result, Taliah slows down and tracks slightly north-westwards before a new mid-level anticyclone builds to the south-southwest early next week. The ridge will push northeastwards of Taliah, forcing it to take a south-westwards movement from Tuesday next week. Taliah is forecast to leave the Australian region (90E) early on Wednesday as a category 3 cyclone.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1330 UTC.