Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1305 UTC 24/03/2026 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 16.3S Longitude: 122.8E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (236 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 999 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1800: 16.7S 121.4E: 030 (060): 040 (075): 991 +12: 25/0000: 17.2S 120.1E: 040 (080): 050 (095): 985 +18: 25/0600: 17.7S 118.9E: 045 (085): 055 (100): 981 +24: 25/1200: 17.9S 117.9E: 045 (080): 065 (120): 974 +36: 26/0000: 18.7S 115.8E: 040 (075): 085 (155): 954 +48: 26/1200: 19.9S 113.9E: 050 (090): 100 (185): 938 +60: 27/0000: 21.6S 112.9E: 065 (115): 095 (175): 943 +72: 27/1200: 24.3S 113.0E: 085 (155): 085 (155): 952 +96: 28/1200: 32.1S 117.8E: 145 (275): 040 (075): 986 +120: 29/1200: 39.5S 123.8E: 200 (370): 030 (055): 988 REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the northwest Kimberley coast. Position is estimated using Broome radar and microwave with reasonable confidence. Deep convection is evident north of the centre, with some deep convection starting to occur near the system center. Intensity 35 kn in the northeast quadrant, with observations at Koolan Island and Adele Island recording intermitant gale force winds and destructive gusts. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 using a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.2.-0.3. No MET. FT/CI=2.5. Objective guidance: (1-min means at 1130UTC): ADT 45kn, AiDT 37 kn, DPRINT 38 kn, DMINT (1125 UTC) 49kn Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development - SSTs around 29 30 C persist along Narelle s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26 C roughly south of Shark Bay; strong equatorward outflow and upper divergence and deep moisture. An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer. Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0900 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle forecast to remain in moderate shear in the next few days, however, NWP guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibiting intensification. Redevelopment to a tropical cyclone is expected early Wednesday morning and intensification expected to continue Wednesday and Thursday to category 4 intensity (100 kn). Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the south, tracking to the west southwest. By Friday the anticyclone moves further east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast. Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less favourable, however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity further south towards Perth. Although the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving down the west coast the timing does vary considerably. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC.