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Australia's first tropical cyclone of the season could form this week

A tropical low developing near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands has the potential to become the first named tropical cyclone of Australia’s 2024-25 cyclone season.

The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from the start of November until the end of April. During this six-month period, we usually see around 9 to 11 tropical cyclones inside Australia’s area of responsibility, which covers the area shaded on the map below.

Image: Australia’s area of responsibility for tropical cyclone monitoring, broken into three regions (Eastern, Northern and Western regions)

On Tuesday morning, a tropical low was sitting about 450 km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, near the northwest corner of Australia’s area of responsibility.

Forecast models suggest that this low will move south in the coming days while becoming more consolidated, with a moderate risk of the low becoming a tropical cyclone inside the Australian region on Thursday.

Image: Satellite images showing clouds forming around a tropical low near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Tuesday.

If this system does become a tropical cyclone inside Australia’s area of responsibility, it would be the first named cyclone of the 2024-25 season and be named Robyn.

This system is not going to have any direct impact on the Australian mainland. It should also steer clear of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, although it will be close enough to cause showers and thunderstorms over the islands for the next few days.