Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 19 Apr 2025

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0127 UTC 19/04/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 30U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 141.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (115 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  19/0600: 12.2S 141.3E:     025 (050):  030  (055):  1000
+12:  19/1200: 12.3S 141.2E:     035 (065):  030  (055):  1000
+18:  19/1800: 12.3S 141.0E:     045 (080):  035  (065):  997
+24:  20/0000: 12.4S 140.8E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  997
+36:  20/1200: 12.2S 139.9E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  995
+48:  21/0000: 11.9S 138.5E:     090 (170):  040  (075):  996
+60:  21/1200: 11.3S 137.0E:     115 (215):  030  (055):  1001
+72:  22/0000: 10.7S 135.5E:     140 (255):  030  (055):  1001
+96:  23/0000: 9.0S 133.0E:     165 (305):  030  (055):  1001
+120: 24/0000: 8.5S 132.6E:     185 (340):  025  (045):  1002

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 30U is slow moving near land in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Deep convection has weakened and become more disorganised in the last 3 hours. Position is based on persistence, animated VIS satellite imagery and Weipa radar with moderate confidence. Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=2.0/2.5. DT 2.0 based on 0.35 wrap of log10 spiral. 24-hr trend of W- gives MET2.0 and PT is 2.0. Objective guidance at 0000 UTC: ADT 33 kn, AiDT 28 kn, DPRINT 25 kn, DMIN 24 kn, MW Sounder 38 kn and SATCON 35 kn (all 1-min average). Intensity is set at 25 kn based on persistence from the overnight ASCAT pass, with gales expected to develop on the southern side early Sunday morning. 30U lies on the western edge of an upper anticyclone, under moderate northeasterly shear (CIMSS 23 kn). MIMIC TPW indicates incursion of mid-level dry air from the north and northeast, which is also present on 2300 UTC Weipa trace. SST are around 30C. The moderate deep layer NE'ly shear is likely to be maintained, and in the absence of any strong low level forcing, likelihood of much further development would seem limited. General model guidance indicate a balanced steady state during the weekend and into early next week with periods of quadrant gales, possibly associated with pulsating deep convection near the centre. The system is expected to be slow moving through Saturday. A low to mid-level anticyclone to the southeast is likely to become the dominant influence from tonight, resulting in 30U turning towards the west and steering across the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next few days. The track will take 30U close to the northeast Top End coast on Monday, before 30U continues to move into the Arafura Sea where it is likely to persist for most of next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0730 UTC.