Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Sat 22 Feb 2025

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 22/02/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.1S
Longitude: 150.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (071 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (None km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1200: 15.0S 150.4E:     035 (070):  040  (075):  999
+12:  22/1800: 14.8S 150.7E:     045 (085):  040  (075):  997
+18:  23/0000: 14.6S 151.0E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  997
+24:  23/0600: 14.2S 151.4E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  994
+36:  23/1800: 14.1S 152.6E:     075 (145):  050  (095):  991
+48:  24/0600: 14.7S 153.5E:     095 (175):  055  (100):  987
+60:  24/1800: 15.1S 153.9E:     100 (185):  060  (110):  983
+72:  25/0600: 15.6S 154.2E:     120 (225):  060  (110):  983
+96:  26/0600: 16.5S 154.6E:     150 (280):  065  (120):  980
+120: 27/0600: 18.0S 154.7E:     185 (340):  070  (130):  973

REMARKS:
Tropical low 22U continues to develop convection near the centre, with curvature and banding slowly improving. However, the effects of westerly shear are still apparent in the satellite signature. The past two ASCAT passes have depicted an elongated LLCC. Current centre fix based on visible satellite imagery and Willis Island radar with fair confidence. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with 0.4-0.45 wrap giving a DT of 2.5. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, and PAT is adjusted to 2.5. Final T and CI 2.5. Objective aids are not yet available. Intensity set to 40 knots based on persistent gales at Willis Island, peaking at 36 knots. Gales remain analysed in the southern quadrants only, extrapolating this morning's ASCAT pass and reinforced by OSCAT and ASMR2 passes this afternoon. CIMSS upper wind analysis shows good outflow in both the northern and southern quadrants, the latter effected by an upper trough nearby to the south. CIMSS shear analysis shows 22U located along a narrow bottleneck in a low shear band. However, recent satellite imagery would suggest the system remains affected by westerly shear from the proximity of the upper trough to some degree. This is expected to offset the favourable outflow somewhat over the next 24 hours. The system may move further north away from this upper trough in the short term as the SE'ly surge pushes in from the south. Development at close to the standard rate is thus forecast, which would see the system reach TC strength on Sunday morning. However, with good forcing from a low level SE surge and gales already in place, it is possible the system may achieve TC strength earlier than forecast. The influence of the upper trough will cause initial steering to be broadly to the E, with an initial push northward as the low level SE surge arrives. Beyond that, most guidance suggests that a steering ridge will extend from the Australian mainland and partially cradle the system, halting any further E'ly motion, yielding a slow southward track through most of next week. The upper trough will be only slow to move, so the system may encounter increasing shear as it moves south. Hence, only slow development is forecast, with some weakening likely to begin at the end of next week. Guidance is well spread on the influence of the mainland ridge on the track of 22U late next week, with some suggestion that the system may drift slightly westward and approach the central Queensland coast late next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC.