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12-Month Rainfall Forecast

  1. Darling Downs 12-month Rainfall Forecast

    Apr
    25
    May
    25
    Jun
    25
    Jul
    25
    Aug
    25
    Sep
    25
    Oct
    25
    Nov
    25
    Dec
    25
    Jan
    26
    Feb
    26
    Mar
    26

    10

    5
    0

    10
    6
    7
    7
    6
    6
    6
    7
    6
    7
    7
    4

    Rainfall deciles

    10
    Well above normal
    8 - 9
    Above normal
    4 - 7
    Near normal
    2 - 3
    Below normal
    1
    Well below normal

    Issue Notes

    Issued 22 Apr 2025

    ENSO status: Neutral. IOD status: Neutral. SAM status: Positive. Trending positive. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral conditions, after a short and weak La Niña pattern. Neutral conditions are likely to persist through autumn and early winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase, but the Indian ocean overall is much warmer than average. The IOD is forecast to become more negative from late autumn, and is a higher than normal chance to develop in 2025. A negative IOD typically increases the amount of northwest cloudbands that cross Australia, increasing rainfall from northwest WA through to southeastern Australia during winter and spring. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a positive phase, meaning cold fronts are further south than they typically would be at this time of year. Forecasts are indicating a positive phase to be more dominant during autumn, aligned with most autumns in the last decade. During autumn, a positive SAM increases rainfall overmost of eastern Australia, and decreases rainfall for SA, Vi, western Tas, and southwest WA. Rainfall outlooks are showing below average rainfall for much of Australia during May, then generally returning closer to average by June. There is a increased chance of wetter than average conditions over western WA and eastern NSW with very warm sea surface temperatures near both coasts.

    Forecast Explanation

    Notes on the concept of deciles

    If all the data in a record are ranked from lowest to highest they can then be divided into 100 equal blocks. These blocks are known as percentiles. The values that fall into the lowest 10% range (from 0 to 10%) are said to be in the first decile, those in the group 10+% to 20% are in the second decile, and so on. Those in the group 90+% to the maximum value recorded are in the 10th decile. The 50% value is a special one known as the 'median'. It is noteworthy since there is the same number of records above and below its value.

    Deciles have been found to be very useful for analysing rainfall in particular as its distribution is not the normal bell-shape distribution but is skewed towards many low values with only a few high values. The deciles can be described in qualitative terms. A table is provided in the accompanying results.